Did China Hide the True Extent of the Coronavirus Outbreak?

Yet in the days that followed, several indicators pointed towards the notion that China may have deliberately downplayed the number of Covid-19-related deaths on its territory. Now Bloomberg, citing a classified US intelligence services report, say that China did, indeed, conceal the extent of the outbreak in the country. For other countries around the world, lulled into a false sense of security, the consequences of such underreporting could be dramatic.

The number of coronavirus victims in Europe is chilling: As of March 31st 2020, 12,428 have died in Italy, 8,269 in Spain and 3,024 in France. In the United States, the number of infected rose to 143,000 compared to 82,000 in China, the world's most populous country and the cradle of the pandemic. Interestingly enough, more than 3,415 deaths have been recorded in the US thus far, a total already higher than in China. 

And while this could mean that China has simply been far more successful than other nations in dealing with the spread of coronavirus, with Xi Jinping regime doing a better job than western leaders in terms of care, containment, testing and mask distribution, in recent days an alternative hypothesis has been gaining credence – namely that the regime covered up the extent of the disaster in order to save face.

The dead don't lie

It seems likely that China has underestimated the Covid-19 death toll in the Middle Kingdom. The key question is whether this is deliberate and systematic, or if there is a more prosaic reason. Several pieces of evidence, produced by investigative journalists or shared by Chinese people themselves, have shed light on the lack of transparency coming from the Chinese authorities: the number of funeral urns in Wuhan seems to exceed the number of official deaths. Officially standing at 3,500, the number of deaths in Wuhan could be as high as 40,000. Despite strict censorship, these statistics are spreading like wildfire throughout the country and are hurting the credibility of the regime’s official line. Naive or nefarious, the Chinese government's proclaimation of victory seems as premature as George W. Bush's 'mission accomplished' speech on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln. For a few days now, unrest has been shaking up the most populated country in the world. Videos, circulating online, notably show workers opposing the progressive lifting of the lockdown, convinced that the virus is still spreading in the region.

It is also possible that some medical doctors have minimized the number of patients treated for Covid-19. According to Marc Julienne, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and a specialist on China “at the very beginning of the epidemic, doctors sounding the alarm bell were accused of causing social disorder.” As a result, in a country where "good news is spread and bad news stays hidden," the authorities may have been misinformed about the extent of the disaster because of those on the front line self-censoring.

Another clever way of hiding the actual number of deaths is not to register patients as dying of the coronavirus if they had been suffering from another pathology. Thus, a person suffering from a heart disease, who died of the Coronavirus, can easily be registered as having died of a heart attack. Currently, no hard evidence has been made public that the China has been doing this wholesale... but the suspicion is strong. And the suspicion is only going to grow as Covid-19 death tolls continue to rise across the western world.

The blame game

If the Chinese regime continues with its strategy of deflection and denial, (it strongly objected to President Trump calling Covid-19 the ‘Chinese virus’ and made suggestions that the US military may have been responsible for the Wuhan outbreak) it could soon have thousands of other Western deaths weighing on its conscience. By downplaying the issue, China led some European countries to believe that the situation was easily controllable and to underestimate the impact of the pandemic. European countries prepared for a wave of a pandemic, which unfortunately turned out to be stronger than expected. It, therefore, comes as no surprise that the first European countries to be heavily affected (Spain and Italy) are those in which the deaths tolls are the highest.

Today, Beijing’s best and brightest have gone on a charm offensive, pledging to provide the West with masks and other medical aid. Yet, here too the country has fallen short of expectations. 600,000 test kits received by Spain proved did not work, while Netherlands received 1.3 million defective FFP2 masks. Another reason, detractors say, to take what China says during this emergency with a pinch of salt.