Lifting the Lockdown: A Country-by-Country Summary

Since March, the US and much of Europe has been under governmentally imposed lockdown in a bid to prevent the spread of COVID-19. As the number of cases has stabilised, most governments have begun to relax the restrictions, or have planned to. We look at six of these countries and assess their plans.

The US

In late April, 2 in 3 Americans thought state governments would lift restrictions on public activity too quickly, according to the Pew Research Center. And yet a sizeable, very vocal section of America, from the man on the street to the man at the top, has been clamouring for lockdown to be lifted.

President Donald Trump’s ability to encourage his followers, via Twitter, to act in opposition to mainstream media guidance that he paints as “fake news” is, from a public health perspective, disturbing. In mid-April he sent Tweets saying “LIBERATE MINNESOTA”, “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA”, all states that had seen anti-lockdown demonstrations – and all states governed by Democrats. This was probably not a coincidence – he issued no such Tweets about Ohio or Utah, Republican-governed states that had also seen anti-lockdown protests. This was also in contravention to advice given by his own coronavirus task force.

Indeed, lifting lockdown at this point is unwise for the US. At the behest of Republican governor Brian Kemp, Georgia began to reopen on 24 April, with gyms, hairdressers and tattoo parlours being among the companies to unshutter themselves. Three days later, cinemas and restaurants began doing the same. Even Trump declared that this was “too soon”. Compared to other states, Georgia isn’t the worst off: there are 15 states with higher coronavirus death rates per capita. But it remains a deadly spreader: in the week after it reopened, over half a million people travelled to Georgia every day.

Across the US, citizens are tiring of lockdown, and mobility has been on the rise. In large part this has been facilitated by state governments: about half the states of the US have begun to reopen, often in total defiance of lives put at risk. Texas’s governor, Republican Greg Abbott, brazenly admitted in leaked audio: “whenever you have a reopening, whether you want to call it a reopening of business or just a reopening of society in the aftermath of something like this, it actually will lead to an increase in spread.” There is certainly a difference between Republican and Democrat approaches to lockdown: eight states with Republican governors never issued mandatory stay-at-home orders in the first place. But even in Democrat-led states such as California, thousands of Americans have flouted orders to go to the beach to enjoy a heatwave. Some, but not all, of California’s beaches remain open.

New York, the worst-hit state, is due to begin phasing in its reopening on 16 May in the wake of continuously falling death rates, though governor Andrew Cuomo has said that this will depend on fatality and transmission rates.

The UK

After three weeks of coronavirus-induced sick leave, most probably brought on by his own reckless behaviour, UK prime minister Boris Johnson was reluctant to lift the UK’s lockdown, despite calls for relaxation among his Conservative party. Yet the UK has generally not suffered the rigorous kind of lockdown imposed in other European countries. For instance, France and Italy required their citizens to fill out a form for every sortie out of the house, and Spain banned leaving the house for any reason other than work or buying food or medicine. All three countries banned recreational cycling and were vigilant about enforcing the lockdown in general: for instance, by 24 March, almost 95,000 Italians had been charged with breaking the rules and faced fines of up to €206. Even Ireland, which shares a land border with the UK, has only allowed residents to exercise within 2km of their home.

In the absence of strict lockdown, mobility in the UK has been fairly high. Analysing Google data, we can see that by 2 May, visits to parks had fallen 18% below the baseline (the baseline being median daily mobility between 3 January and 6 February 2020). The corresponding drops in Italy, Spain and France were 71%, 43% and 72% respectively.

Another reason mobility has been high in the UK is a lack of firm leadership by Britain’s leader, who has himself has frequently been out of view. He missed five meetings of COBRA, the government’s national emergencies committee, and spent a week in late February on holiday while the country was undergoing two crises: coronavirus and devastating floods. Contracting coronavirus put the captain on the touchlines for another three weeks. And while the cat’s away, the mice will play – hence the UK’s fairly high social mobility.

Yesterday, the UK government unveiled a change in messaging, from “Stay at home. Protect the NHS [National Health Service]. Save lives” to “Stay alert. Control the virus. Save lives”. This was widely derided; doctor and writer Adam Kay tweeted that it would be “difficult to stay alert to something that’s 0.0001mm in diameter”, and the instruction to “Control the virus” was criticized by many as nonsensically vague. Many people once again perceived it as an attempt to shift responsibility from the government to the people.

Johnson’s pronouncements on the relaxation of lockdown were also unclear and low on detail. The country had been gearing up for over a week to hear his Sunday address, but he ended up saying that although some shops might be able to open next month, the government was “actively encouraging” people to now return to work if they couldn’t do so from home – which could include any number of shopkeepers and proprietors.

He added that “unlimited exercise” will be fine from 13 May, as will trips to beaches and national parks. He also said that sporting activities will now be permitted if the participants don’t play with anyone outside their own household; it is unclear how this will be enforced.

However, compared to other countries, his roadmap for relaxation seems fairly cautious. Primary schools, shops and nurseries could be partially reopening from 1 June; cafés, restaurants, cinemas and places of worship may open from July.

The leaders of the UK’s other three constituent parts – Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – encouraged their respective populations to ignore the new guidance for England and stick to “Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Save lives.”

France

Lockdown came into force in France on 17 March, almost a week before the UK’s. Its strict rules were foreshadowed by President Emmanuel Macron’s address the day before. “We are at war,” he announced. “A public health war.” By late April, support for the strict lockdown was on the wane: polls showed that significantly less than half the country was in favour of the specific measures of lockdown, though most people were in favour of working from home where possible and the continued suspension of sporting and cultural gatherings. Brief outings for walking pets or doing exercise were permitted, but any excursions out of the house required one to carry a filled-in form.

Unlike its neighbour across the Channel, France has been relatively transparent about the stages of lockdown and its lifting: on 28 April, the French prime minister presented his national exit strategy to parliament to be debated and voted on, and long before that, 11 May had been announced as the first date of a phased reopening.

It’s fairly clear what will happen from today. Shops, businesses and cultural places such as libraries will reopen, but not cafés, restaurants or theatres. Groups of up to ten people may assemble, but no event with more than 5,000 people will be permitted until September. People will have to justify trips of more than 100km, however, with a €135 fine for infractions; and the country’s borders will remain closed to non-EU citizens until further notice.

However, four regions will remain under fairly strict lockdown until further notice: Île-de-France (including Paris) and the three north-eastern regions Hauts-de-France, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Great Est. All these areas have been designated “red zones”, as the virus is still circulating above a certain level there. In Paris, workers will need documents from their employer to use public transport.

In the rest of the country, which has been marked as “green”, parks and secondary schools will reopen from 18 May. Primary schools, cafés and restaurants can reopen on 1 June if those regions remain “green” until then. Yet it’s worth pointing out that France’s information campaign is very similar to the UK’s. “Sauves des vies,” blare posters. “Restez prudent.” In other words: “Save lives. Stay alert.”

Italy

The first European country to impose a harsh lockdown, Italy relaxed some of its strict rules on 4 May, with family visits allowed in small numbers, and parks, cafés, factories and building sites reopening. The country had been under strict lockdown since 9 March, with no one allowed more than 200m from their home and heavy fines for infractions. On 14 April, a small number of businesses with low footfall, such as bookshops, drycleaners and stationers, were permitted to open.

4 million Italians returned to work on 4 May, with one-metre social distancing mandated and protective masks now ubiquitous. Funerals are now allowed to be attended by up to 15 people, and bars and restaurants are open for collection, not just delivery – though eating or drinking on the premises is still prohibited.

On 18 May, there will be further relaxation of the lockdown: sports teams may resume group training, and museums and libraries will reopen, as will any shops that as yet remain in lockdown. From 1 June, bars and restaurants will – assuming the virus’s infection rate continues to dissipate – open for on-premises service, and hairdressers and beauty salons will reopen too.

However, other than masses permitted from 18 May, churches remain in lockdown, perhaps because of not only the close proximity of congregants but the tactility often involved in attending church. This measure has raised the ire of Roman Catholic bishops, and others: Elena Bonetti, minister for equal opportunities and families, tweeted: “So we can safely visit a museum but we can’t celebrate a religious service? This decision is incomprehensible. It must be changed”.

Spain

Spain’s lockdown has been similar to Italy’s in its rigour, strictness and enforcement; arguably, it has been even stricter in its rules on personal mobility and outdoor exercise. For approximately six weeks, adults were not permitted to leave their home for exercise (only trips to buy food, or excursions to the doctor, pharmacy or bank were allowed) while children were not allowed to leave their homes for any reason. But as early as 13 April, the government allowed some factories to reopen and some construction work to restart, and now its roadmap for relaxation is on roughly the same timetable as Italy’s.

Since the end of April, exercise has been permitted, but only at allotted times: walks and other exercise, such as running and cycling, must take place between 6am and 10am, or between 8pm and 11pm. Outings with children must take place between 12pm and 7pm. People who need to go out with a carer or people over 70 years of age can do so from 10am to 12pm and 7pm to 8pm. It is important to note that the lockdown is being relaxed to a lesser or greater extent depending on the region. For example, as of today, in some regions (though notably not in Madrid), meetings of up to 10 people are permitted.

From today, in some parts of Spain, churches and mosques can reopen, and customers can order drinks on terrace bars, with bars and restaurants opening one month later as long as they operate at no more than 50% capacity. From 26 May, schools will reopen for revision classes and state exams, but full recommencement will not take place until September. Also on 26 May, cinemas, theatres and museums will open, as long as they operate at up to 30% capacity.

Germany

Having enjoyed the mildest lockdown of any major European country, Germany’s mobility has remained even higher than the UK’s. A comparison of Google data is instructive: by 2 May in Germany, visits to parks had fallen 18% below the baseline (the baseline being median daily mobility between 3 January and 6 February 2020), the same as in the UK. But whereas visits to groceries and pharmacies in the UK fell by nearly a third, in Germany they rose by 3%. Germany also saw a mere 46% decline in visits to retail and recreation sites, compared to a 78% plunge in the UK. Meanwhile, visits to workplaces fell by half in the UK but only a fifth in Germany.

With the caveat of central government being able to impose an “emergency brake” if a spike in cases is observed, the precise roadmap of lockdown relaxation will be left to each of the country’s 16 states. Broadly, all shops are now open with social distancing measures in place; shops smaller than 800sqm have been open since 20 April, as have bookshops and car and bicycle dealerships. Schools have reopened for young children and exam-takers, with other classes reopening over the next few weeks.

Festivals are still prohibited – but Germany’s football league, the Bundesliga, will resume from 16 May. It is the first major European league to do so, albeit behind closed doors.

Arjun Sajip