Bill Gates: Extreme lockdowns could have been avoided with effective testing

Gates, whose Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation focusses on improving global healthcare, said “testing is everything” in the context of Covid-19 and that many countries did not act fast enough in order to avoid lockdowns.

He also hinted that an “extreme shutdown”, if implemented effectively, could mean that, in six to ten weeks, countries could start opening up again.

“In the period before it [coronavirus] showed up, we should have done more in the area of testing,” Gates told TED in an interview with head of TED Chris Anderson. “We are still not creating that capacity and applying that to those who are most in need – we have healthworkers who are symptomatic and can’t get a test and don’t know whether they should go in or not go in.”

Gates said many countries had got their testing strategy wrong. “Lots of tests are being given to people who aren’t symptomatic,” he said. "Testing has got to be organized and prioritized, that is super urgent.”

While lockdowns could be disastrous for the economy, Gates was said it was better that they were implemented sooner rather than later if the window for effective testing had passed. “The sooner you do it in a tough way, the sooner you can undo it and go back to normal,” he added.

Many countries had not “taken advantage of the month of February”, Gates said, adding that South Korea’s approach to mass testing was a lesson “everyone should learn from”. He continued: “South Korea took advantage of February, built up the testing capacity and they were able to contact trace and the infections have gone down even without the type of shutdown that, because we’re late, we’re having to do.”

“Testing is everything,” Gates argued. “That’s how you know whether you need to do more shutdown or you’re starting to get to the point where you can relieve it – you’re blind when you randomly decide who gets access to the testing capacity, testing at high volume and isolation must go together.”

Gates said that the US had missed the opportunity to control the spread of the virus without a shutdown and mocked suggestions that people could be encouraged to continue going about their business as usual. “We need to shutdown to avoid the worst case of what was happening in Wuhan [in China] and northern Italy,” Gates remarked. “There is no middle ground, it’s tough to say to people ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner – we want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is what really counts.'”

Gates continued: “It’s very hard to tell people when there is an epidemic spreading that threatens their parents, or elderly people that they know, that they should go about things knowing their activity is spreading this disease – I don’t know of any rich countries that have chosen to use that approach.”

Gates said it was irresponsible for “someone to suggest we can have the best of both worlds”. He added: “What we need is the extreme shutdown so that in six to ten weeks, if things go well, then you can start opening back up”.

To watch the interview, click here